Tag Archives: mathematics statistics

Did Young People Let Kerry Down?

As I've been watching the endless recycling of stale news as I await either a definitive count or a concession by Kerry, I've heard a lot about how disappointing the young voter turnout supposedly was. Apparently, approximately the same percentage of the vote, about 17%, was under 25. Kerry supporters are shaking their heads and wondering how they failed to get young people involved and motivated. They thought that a high turnout of young people would hand Kerry the presidency on a silver platter. What happened?

Well, I think the Kerry campaign did get young people to vote in impressive numbers, however, the Bush campaign managed to get other disaffected citizens to vote, such as Evangelical Christians. My guess is that voter turnout was up across the board and as a result, high youth turnout was obscured. I think a lot of people underestimated the number of older citizens who did not vote in 2000 but were motivated to vote this year. I'll be very interested to see the demographic breakdowns once the dust settles. I think we'll find that while focusing on getting young people to "rock the vote", the Democratic Party lost touch with the rest of the country. Furthermore, a lot of the young people Kerry inspired to vote may have voted against him. Maybe we'll find that young people aren't so overwhelmingly liberal as we thought.

Election Hijinks

USAToday has joined the New
York Times
in highlighting
the nightmares involving the electoral college
. This piece is more informative
and less biased than the
previous
.

Remember the 36-day drama over Florida’s hanging chads and butterfly ballots?

Get ready for a replay.

How it could happen

The scenarios aren’t far-fetched:

*For a tie: Every state votes the way it did four years ago, except for two. New Hampshire and West Virginia, which voted for Bush last time, go Democratic this time. Kerry is competitive in both states.

*For a divided result that elects Bush: Every state votes the way it did four years ago, giving Bush an electoral-vote majority of 278. That’s a more comfortable edge – a side effect of the redistribution of congressional seats and electoral votes after the 2000 Census – than last time, when Bush got 271 votes, one more than required. But Kerry carries the popular vote, as Al Gore (news – web sites) did, by rolling up big totals in such strongholds as California and New York.

*For a divided result that elects Kerry: Every state votes the way it did four years ago, except for one. Kerry wins Florida, for a majority of 287 electoral votes, or Ohio, for 280. They went Republican in 2000; state polls released Sunday show Kerry and Bush tied in both. But Bush carries the popular vote by scoring oversized margins in his home state of Texas and in the South and Mountain West.

Come Mister Tally Man

A week ago, I posted about some electoral
vote projection sites
. Here are a few more (plus the old ones). Some are biased
to Kerry. Others are biased to Bush. All say that Kerry would win handily if the
election were held today.

Election
Projection

Daly
Thoughts

Federal
Review

Coldheart’s
Projections

Race 2004
Professor Pollkatz Pool
of Polls

Electoral
Vote Predictor 2004

Politicking

JuliusBlog has a couple interesting posts regarding the upcoming election. The first is "a series of correlations between past terror alerts and political events unfavorable to the Bush administration". The second is "a chart comparing Bush approval numbers to the timeline of terror alerts".

The chart is based on a fascinating and well-documented site called PROFESSOR POLLKATZ's POOL OF POLLS. The statistics are very thorough and data collection and interpretation methods are described in detail. Skepticism is always advisable when statistics are involved, but I suspect this site is "clean".

Another site, electoral-vote.com, has an interesting map of projected electoral votes (a similar map can be found on the Pool of Polls site). It doesn't look good for Bush (Kerry 327, Bush 211 at time of posting). I wonder if the GOP convention will change things.