Tag Archives: mathematics statistics

Repeat After Me: Correlation Does Not Necessarily Imply Causation (Katrina and Global Warming)

More people need to read this.

"In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, some commentators are jumping to the conclusion that global warming is responsible for its destructiveness. While there is a theoretical possibility that higher ocean temperatures could lead to more powerful hurricanes, no individual hurricane can be shown to be so affected. Moreover, most scientists who study hurricanes believe that we are moving from a period of low hurricane activity to one of greater activity – change not caused by global warming. So, arguing that Katrina’s ravages are the result of climate change commits a causal fallacy."

….

"1. There is no way of telling how much, if any, of Katrina’s destructiveness was caused by global warming. There were equally, and even more, destructive hurricanes prior to global warming, and it is impossible to differentiate between a hurricane that is destructive due to global warming and one that is just plain destructive."

"2. Most scientists who study hurricanes believe that they are becoming more severe due to cyclical changes which have nothing to do with global warming, so it may be that all of Katrina’s destructiveness was due to these other causes. If this were not the case, there would be a plausible argument that global warming was responsible for Katrina’s excessive destructiveness for lack of an alternative explanation. However, there is an alternative. Now, I am not a scientist who studies hurricanes myself, so I’m relying upon press reports for the expert opinions of those who do (see the Resources below). Of course, press reports are not always reliable, so caveat lector."

Morals in Politics

Seemingly based on the Libertarian Party's political quiz, this Moral Politics quiz plots your position on a map whose axes are moral order (x) and moral rules (y). Like any such quiz, it oversimplifies matters, but it's entertaining none the less. I like that I score as the party-less centrist I am. (HT:I Am a Christian Too) Continue reading

Seeing Purple

The fella at Electoral Vote Predictor has read my mind and produced exactly
the kind of election results map I wanted
. It gives a better indication of just
how deeply divided this country is than the simple red and blue maps.

Nobody seems to care about how much healing America needs. The Republicans are patting
each other’s backs and claiming
a mandate from the people
and the liberals are turning
their noses up at the “unwashed masses”
who elected Bush and/or fleeing
to Canada
. Meanwhile, Christendom still can’t agree on what
takes moral priority in politics
.

On a side note, the
election cost American tax payers way too much
. There are so many programs
that could have benefited from that money. What a waste.