Denomination-hopping As State Transitions

A strange thought just occurred to me. There are always people leaving one denomination (or even religion) and entering another. I wonder if the conversion and apostacy rates could be modelled as molecules evaporating from one liquid and condensing in another. Members since birth and converts that either never leave or leave only after a long time could be modelled as members of solids. In these models, temperatures would be indicative of scandal, heresy, revival, reform, and other major causes of movement between denominations. Also, different groups would have different state transition temperatures, reflecting relative cohesiveness.

Thoughts?

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About Funky Dung

Who is Funky Dung? 29-year-old grad student in Intelligent Systems (A.I.) at the University of Pittsburgh. I consider myself to be politically moderate and independent and somewhere between a traditional and neo-traditional Catholic. I was raised Lutheran, spent a number of years as an agnostic, and joined the Catholic Church at the 2000 Easter Vigil. Why Funky Dung? I haven't been asked this question nearly as many times as you or I might expect. Funky Dung is a reference to an obscure Pink Floyd song. On the album Atom Heart Mother, there is a track called Atom Heart Mother Suite. It's broken up into movements, like a symphony, and one of the movements is called Funky Dung. I picked that nickname a long time ago (while I was still in high school I think), shortly after getting an internet connection for the first time. To me it means "cool/neat/groovy/spiffy stuff/crap/shiznit", as in "That's some cool stuff, dude!" Whence Ales Rarus? I used to enjoy making people guess what this means, but I've decided to relent and make it known to all. Ales Rarus is a Latin play on words. "Avis rarus" means "a rare bird" and carries similar meaning to "an odd fellow". "Ales" is another Latin word for bird that carries connotations of omens, signs of the times, and/or augery. If you want to get technical, both "avis" and "ales" are feminine (requiring "rara", but they can be made masculine in poetry (which tends to breaks lots of rules). I decided I'd rather have a masculine name in Latin. ;) Yeah, I'm a nerd. So what? :-P Wherefore blog? It is my intention to "teach in order to lead others to faith" by being always "on the lookout for occasions of announcing Christ by word, either to unbelievers . . . or to the faithful" through the "use of the communications media". I also act knowing that I "have the right and even at times a duty to manifest to the sacred pastors [my] opinion on matters which pertain to the good of the Church, and [I] have a right to make [my] opinion known to the other Christian faithful, with due regard to the integrity of faith and morals and reverence toward [my and their] pastors, and with consideration for the common good and the dignity of persons." (adapted from CCC 904-907) Statement of Faith I have been baptized and confirmed in the name of the Father, Son and Holy Spirit. I, therefore, renounce Satan; I renounce all his works; I renounce all his allurements. I hold and profess all that is contained in the Apostles' Creed, the Niceno- Constantinopolitan Creed, and the Athanasian Creed. Having been buried with Christ unto death and raised up with him unto a new life, I promise to live no longer for myself or for that world which is the enemy of God but for him who died for me and rose again, serving God, my heavenly Father, faithfully and unto death in the holy Catholic Church. I am obedient to the Magisterium of the Catholic Church. That is, I promote and defend authentic Catholic Teaching and Faith in union with Christ and His Church and in union with the Holy Father, the Bishop of Rome, the Successor of St. Peter. Thanks be unto Thee, O my God, for all Thy infinite goodness, and, especially, for the love Thou hast shown unto me at my Confirmation. I Give Thee thanks that Thou didst then send down Thy Holy Spirit unto my soul with all His gifts and graces. May He take full possession of me for ever. May His divine unction cause my face to shine. May His heavenly wisdom reign in my heart. May His understanding enlighten my darkness. May His counsel guide me. May His knowledge instruct me. May His piety make me fervent. May His divine fear keep me from all evil. Drive from my soul, O Lord, all that may defile it. Give me grace to be Thy faithful soldier, that having fought the good fight of faith, I may be brought to the crown of everlasting life, through the merits of Thy dearly beloved Son, our Savior, Jesus Christ. Amen. Behind the Curtain: an Interview With Funky Dung (Thursday, March 03, 2005) I try to avoid most memes that make their way 'round the blogosphere (We really do need a better name, don't we?), but some are worth participating in. Take for instance the "interview game" that's the talk o' the 'sphere. I think it's a great way to get to know the people in neighborhood. Who are the people in your neighborhood? In your neighborhod? In your neigh-bor-hoo-ood...*smack* Sorry, Sesame Street flashback. Anyhow, I saw Jeff "Curt Jester" Miller's answers and figured since he's a regular reader of mine he'd be a good interviewer. Without further ado, here are my answers to his questions. 1. Being that your pseudonym Funky Dung was chosen from a Pink Floyd track on Atom Heart Mother, what is you favorite Pink Floyd song and why? Wow. That's a tuffy. It's hard to pick out a single favorite. Pink Floyd isn't really a band known for singles. They mostly did album rock and my appreciation of them is mostly of a gestalt nature. If I had to pick one, though, it'd be "Comfortably Numb". I get chills up my spine every time I hear it and if it's been long enough since the last time, I get midty-eyed. I really don't know why. That's a rather unsatisfying answer for an interview, so here are the lyrics to a Rush song. It's not their best piece of music, but the lyrics describe me pretty well.

New World Man He's a rebel and a runner He's a signal turning green He's a restless young romantic Wants to run the big machine He's got a problem with his poisons But you know he'll find a cure He's cleaning up his systems To keep his nature pure Learning to match the beat of the old world man Learning to catch the heat of the third world man He's got to make his own mistakes And learn to mend the mess he makes He's old enough to know what's right But young enough not to choose it He's noble enough to win the world But weak enough to lose it --- He's a new world man... He's a radio receiver Tuned to factories and farms He's a writer and arranger And a young boy bearing arms He's got a problem with his power With weapons on patrol He's got to walk a fine line And keep his self-control Trying to save the day for the old world man Trying to pave the way for the third world man He's not concerned with yesterday He knows constant change is here today He's noble enough to know what's right But weak enough not to choose it He's wise enough to win the world But fool enough to lose it --- He's a new world man...
2. What do you consider your most important turning point from agnosticism to the Catholic Church. At some point in '99, I started attending RCIA at the Pittsburgh Oratory. I mostly went to ask a lot of obnoxious Protestant questions. Or at least that's what I told myself. I think deep down I wanted desperately to have faith again. At that point I think I'd decided that if any variety of Christianity had the Truth, the Catholic Church did. Protestantism's wholesale rejection of 1500 years of tradition didn't sit well with me, even as a former Lutheran. During class one week, Sister Bernadette Young (who runs the program) passed out thin booklet called "Handbook for Today's Catholic". One paragraph in that book spoke to me and I nearly cried as I read it.
"A person who is seeking deeper insight into reality may sometimes have doubts, even about God himself. Such doubts do not necessarily indicate lack of faith. They may be just the opposite - a sign of growing faith. Faith is alive and dynamic. It seeks, through grace, to penetrate into the very mystery of God. If a particular doctrine of faith no longer 'makes sense' to a person, the person should go right on seeking. To know what a doctrine says is one thing. To gain insight into its meaning through the gift of understanding is something else. When in doubt, 'Seek and you will find.' The person who seeks y reading, discussing, thinking, or praying eventually sees the light. The person who talks to God even when God is 'not there' is alive with faith."
At the end of class I told Sr. Bernadette that I wanted to enter the Church at the next Easter vigil. 3. If you were a tree what kind of, oh sorry about that .. what is the PODest thing you have ever done? I set up WikiIndex, a clearinghouse for reviews of theological books, good, bad, and ugly. It has a long way to go, but it'll be cool when it's finished. :) 4. What is your favorite quote from Venerable John Henry Newman? "Ten thousand difficulties do not make one doubt." 5. If you could ban one hymn from existence, what would it be? That's a tough one. As a member of the Society for a Moratorium on the Music of Marty Haugen and David Haas, there are obviously a lot of songs that grate on my nerves. If I had to pick one, though, I'd probably pick "Sing of the Lord's Goodness" by Ernie Sands.

7 thoughts on “Denomination-hopping As State Transitions

  1. Steve Nicoloso

    More of a case for Markov modeling I think. This would actually be a very interesting simulation. If you could start with data from say 1900, you could train it on the last 100 years, and make predictions about the next 100. The models would have to account not only for mobility (transition probabilities as a function of doctrine, social action, style, “user” interface, &c.), but also changes in fecundity derived therefrom, and the probability of kids “not departing from” their training in “the way they should go” in the various traditions. Sadly tho’ I think the results were already predicted back by St. Paul in I Timothy: In the last days, people will gather to themselves teachers who tickle their ears. I.e., the religious group that tells people what they want to hear will “win.” Over the last 40 years the winners have been increasingly heterodox Low Church Protestantism. Still, it would be a very interesting (and valuable) exercise. Since you are an AI student, perhaps you could work this into your dissertation work: Robotic Religious Punditry. Heh!

    Good luck!

  2. The Waffling Anglican

    Given my own history and current vaporous state, I might suggest that the evaporation rate from a denomination increases as its temperature approaches that of hell. The orthodox particles go into the vapor state, and coaolesce at different centers of coolness.

    In the case of the American Episcopal church, for example (and since it is the only one I am familiar with), many of the evaporees seem to land in cool and relatively nearby pools of Continuing Anglicanism, Catholicism, and Orthodoxy. A few who have really been superheated make it all the way to the cool but distant Evangelical pools.

    Modeling the flow of congregants would probably require a way to measure both the internal heat of the denomination and the theological distancec to the available cold traps. You could test the model by looking at other overheated denominations, like PCUSA, ELCA, UCC, etc. and seeing where there expelled particles land.

  3. Funky Dung

    “More of a case for Markov modeling I think.”

    Markov modeling is just a tool. The underlying analogy is what matters, not how it’s implemented. One could, for instance, model state transitions with MM.

  4. Steve Nicoloso

    Yes, of course. But it seems a sufficiently generalized tool for the problem. The number of possible transitions from any state is very large (e.g., Traditionalist Mennonite to Unitarian p=0.000034, Marionite Catholic to Southern Baptist p=0.0087, ELCA to RCC p=0.65, &c.) I don’t see how chemical state transitions alone could allow for enough degrees of freedom… but then I’m an communication system engineer and not a chemist. (Which reminds me of the commercial where one guy says, “I’m a human cannonball, not a doctor.”)

    Cheers!

  5. Sean

    My discrete structures Prof had a stroke when I was in grad school, so we never got to Markov chains, and I’m not following that discussion, but as far as the analysis, I’d be interested in what variables correlate with changing religions. My hyp. would be a change in community correlates most highly. Other variables to consider would be age, education, what else?

  6. Steve Nicoloso

    My hyp. would be a change in community correlates most highly. Other variables to consider would be age, education, what else?

    New pastors, for one. Changes in doctrine or practice within a denomination. Mainline prot churches are “adapting” (perhaps “becoming” is a more appropriate verb) so rapidly to the culture at large, that it’s difficult to keep up, esp. for anyone mildly traditionalist. It is all of course in an attempt to be “hip” and “relevant” to the communities they “serve”, but such an impulse is (I think) mostly a cover for the embarrassment of having to confess historic Christian distinctives, like those of our quirky/separatist/ghettoized parents or grandparents.

    Sean, I’m not at all sure that moving (I assume that’s what you mean by “change in community”) would correlate most highly. It’s up there, but I think “perceived consumer value” (entertainment, babysitting, free lattes in the narthex, &c.) would dominate. First, denomination/church (s)hopping is so widespread, so much more widespread than actually moving, that I suspect only a small minority of new parishoners in any given year fall in this category. Secondly, people who do move tend to want to drive back to their old church each Sunday, even sometimes when it is very far away, even sometimes when that church is no longer a part of their community. (Tho’ in truth the church may never have been part of their community before they moved… any more than any particular strip mall is part of their community. In the age of Cheap Oil and Easy Motoring, such are the inevitable deformities, even pervading the Church.)

    My $0.02

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